Published on 19 December 2024 by Andrew Owen (5 minutes)
Next year is the third anniversary of this blog. But this year, after two and a half years of publishing weekly articles, I had to take a break. After a sojourn in developer relations and solutions engineering, this is also the year I returned to technical writing and contracting. My most high-profile gig this year was contributing to TheSpectrum, a retro console that has been a big hit with consumers. The big road trip this year was from Dingle to Bangor around the coast of Ireland. I’ve previously sailed from Galway to Dublin and Dublin to Bangor. So now I’ve seen the entire coast of Ireland and visited all 32 counties. At the end of the trip, I had a birthday ending in a zero, which I celebrated with a meal at the Wolff Grill in Belfast.
In previous years, I’ve looked back at the articles I’ve published throughout the year. This year, I moved away from focusing mainly on developer relations to cover other topics. I launched the Retro Spotlight series, highlighting sometimes overlooked contributors to the development of computing. And in keeping with my inspiration, Mondo 2000, I published a variety of cultural content, including my curated list of animated shows. But I still managed to come up with some new technical articles, including an introduction to GraphQL.
Another thing I’ve done in the past is to make predictions for the year ahead. So let’s see how I did with my picks for 2024.
There will be consolidation in video streaming. Only the most well paid sci-fi nerds can justify subscribing to Amazon Prime, Apple TV, Disney+, HBO Max, Netflix and Paramount+. This will likely come in the form of packages from traditional service providers.
Verdict: Somewhat correct. HBO Max is now Max. Paramount+ is rumored to be in trouble. Most of the streaming services have cross-licensed some of their content to other streamers. Many of them have done deals with Sky. Sony, has done a deal with Netflix.
5G coverage will reach 50% of 4G coverage globally. This is a fairly conservative prediction given that, according to TeleGeography, in March this year there were 703 4G LTE networks and 259 5G networks with the number of 5G networks expected to reach 390 by the end of 2023.
Verdict: Somewhat correct. More than half the world’s population now has 5G coverage, but it’s skewed towards urban areas in developed countries.
ARM will continue to cut into Intel’s PC market share with Qualcomm-based laptops from traditional vendors like Acer, Asus, Dell, HP, Lenovo and Samsung running Windows 11.
Verdict: Correct. Predictions are that ARM will account for 20% of laptop sales by the end of next year and 40% by the end of 2029.
The chip shortage will finally end. But this will come about mainly because industry has migrated to newer chips, and the increased cost will be passed on to the consumer.
Verdict: Correct. But it was mostly over by the end of 2023 in any case.
The Apple Watch series 10 will deliver non-invasive blood glucose monitoring. AI will be the key to solving the problem of reduced optical sensor accuracy for people with tattoos or darker skin.
Verdict: Somewhat correct. The series 10 launched but it requires a third-party device to monitor blood sugar levels.
Chinese automaker BYD (Build Your Dreams) will overtake Tesla in pure BEV (battery electric vehicle) sales. BYD started out as a battery manufacturer and, unlike Tesla, its home market has enthusiastically embraced electric vehicles.
Verdict: Correct. It happened in January, and BYD is likely to outsell Ford and Honda in total sales in 2024.
The hybrid working backlash. From those who were perfectly happy being fully remote. And those who don’t have a suitable home work environment. But also from managers who want to keep a closer eye on their staff.
Verdict: Correct. Throughout the year, employers continued to order employees back to the office. But once you’ve experienced life without a three-to-four hour daily commute, why would you go back?
Driven by home automation, the internet of things will become more of a daily reality. It will be harder to buy a major kitchen appliance that doesn’t have WiFi.
Verdict: Somewhat correct. You can still get white goods without Wi-Fi, but it’s always an option.
Developer Relations will evolve to survive. In October, Mary Thengvall published the final DevRel weekly update citing the end of free Twitter API access as one reason. DevRel is important, but making the case for it will remain a challenge.
Verdict: Correct. The practice of DevRel is maturing.
AI everywhere all at once. This year, AI crossed over into the mainstream. In 2024, it will become pervasive in ways that it’s too soon to predict.
Verdict: Correct. An easy pick. Apple was late to the game, but it finally launched Apple Intelligence (a ChatGPT integration). AI is everywhere now, although as far as generative AI is concerned, I still think an advanced natural language processor coupled to an advanced predictive text generator is still a poor substitute for a skilled writer. But teachers may have to give up grading students by submitted written work.
To summarize, I probably should have been more ambitious with my predictions. This year, I’m changing the format. Instead of making any predictions, I’ll be listing some things to look forward to in the year ahead. For that list, check back next week.